The anticipated IPO of SpaceX was capturing global attention and for good reason. With an estimated valuation near $1.77 trillion, it was thought to become the largest IPO in history and potentially propel Elon Musk toward becoming the world’s first trillionaire. And it did!
While excitement is understandable, it’s important to step back and evaluate what this means for long-term investors.
What You need to Know About SpaceX
Business Mix & Revenue Drivers (2025)
(Source: Astoria Portfolio Advisors Research)
- Starlink (Connectivity):
- ~$11.4B revenue | ~63% margins
- 10M+ subscribers across 160+ countries
- Launch & Space Operations:
- ~$4.1B revenue
- 160+ launches in 2025
- AI & Technology (xAI + X):
- ~$3.2B revenue (currently loss-making)
Key takeaway: SpaceX is no longer “just a rocket company” it is increasingly a global communications and technology platform, with Starlink driving the majority of its economics.
Who is Elon Musk and Why It Matters
Elon Musk remains the central figure behind SpaceX, with an expected ~85% voting control after the IPO through a dual-class structure.
This level of control has historically led to:
- Bold innovation and long-term vision
- Rapid scaling of new technologies
- Increased volatility and unpredictability
Investors are not just buying a company, they are investing in a founder-led ecosystem with concentrated decision-making.
What Makes This IPO Different
Key IPO Structure Insights
- IPO date: June 12, 2026
- Shares offered: ~3-5% of total company (very limited supply)
- Retail allocation: Up to ~30%
- Largest IPO ever
Why Volatility is Likely
Initial Phase:
IPO → Limited shares → High demand → Price spikes
Next 3–6 Months:
More shares unlocked → Increased supply → Price pressure
Later Phase:
Index inclusion → ETF buying → Stabilization
(Adapted from “Free Float Unboxing” schedule in Astoria research)
Key insight: What happens after the IPO often matters more than the first few days of trading.
Index Inclusion: Why You May Still Own SpaceX Indirectly
Even without direct allocation, SpaceX may enter major indices quickly:
- Nasdaq-100: ~15 trading days potential inclusion
- Russell 1000: Within weeks of listing
- Broad market ETFs (VTI, QQQ, etc.): Gradual weight increases over time
This means many diversified portfolios could gain exposure automatically, without taking IPO risk.
Our Approach at Simonet Financial Group
While RIAs can participate in IPOs, our firm does not participate in IPO allocations, including SpaceX.
This is intentional and based on:
1. Regulatory discipline (FINRA Rule 5130)
We adhere to strict compliance standards around IPO participation and allocation fairness.
2. IPO risk profile
Large IPOs historically experience:
- High volatility
- Pricing uncertainty
- Performance dispersion in the first 6-12 months
3. Long-term philosophy
Our focus is on:
- Long-term capital appreciation
- Risk-managed portfolio construction
- Avoiding speculative entry points
In short: We prioritize disciplined investing over short-term opportunity chasing.
What This Means for Your Portfolio
Even though we are not participating directly:
You may still gain exposure through ETFs and index funds
Sector shifts (technology, communications) may impact holdings
Market sentiment may temporarily influence pricing across growth stocks
Most notably, SpaceX is expected to be categorized within the Communication Services sector, due to Starlink’s dominance.
What We Are Actively Monitoring
In partnership with research from Astoria Advisors – SpaceX IPO Research, we are monitoring:
- Initial pricing vs. valuation expectations
- Lock-up expiration schedule and share supply
- Index inclusion timing and ETF inflows
- Sector-level impact on existing portfolio positions
Final Perspective
The SpaceX IPO is a historic moment but also a reminder of the importance of discipline.
Exciting investments often come with elevated risks, especially in their early stages. Our role is to help ensure your portfolio remains aligned with long-term goals—not short-term headlines.
Let’s Review Your Exposure
As SpaceX enters the public markets, now is a great time to revisit your portfolio positioning.
Schedule a Portfolio Review:
We will walk through:
- Your current exposure to growth and technology sectors
- How IPO-driven market shifts may impact your holdings
- Opportunities to rebalance or optimize your strategy
Have a Question Right Now?
Simply reply to this email or contact our office—we’re happy to discuss how this event may affect your specific plan.
Want to download a PDF of this report? Click here!
Sources: Astoria Research Spacex; SpaceX S-1 filing; Astoria Portfolio Advisors research materials; FactSet; Bloomberg
